With food prices up 37% from 1 year ago, where are they headed next?
The Food and Agriculture Organization released a price index that shows that food prices are up 37% above from where they were in May 2010. Though this is down from the all-time high seen in February, the index is still near hovering near its lofty levels and this has everyone, investors and non-investors, worried.
A large problem plaguing the food industry is a worldwide drought that many are calling the worst in decades. As I wrote to you in April (http://www.thestockenthusiast.com/opinion/my-worst-fears-could-be-coming-true/), a lack of rain and wildfires has plagued crops in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. This has resulted in the US Department of Agriculture saying that almost half of the US winter-wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition. Things aren’t much better in Europe where many regions have experienced the driest conditions seen in fifty years which is affecting not just wheat but the maize crop as well. Even worse are parts of China which have seen the least rain in a century.
The only places where things seem somewhat improved are in Ukraine and Russia. Russia recently announced they will lift an export ban on wheat as of July 1st. However, many analysts do not believe that this will still be enough to prevent food prices from soaring.
“In 32 years, I’ve never seen so many problems in so many places,” said Dan Basse, the president of AgResource Co., a farm researcher in Chicago. “We’re concerned about the world story now,” said Basse, who has been studying agricultural markets since 1979 and expects wheat prices as high as $10 this year.
This is not only concerning because of what higher prices will mean for consumers that drive the US economy but also for many low-income food deficit countries. If food prices skyrocket we could see more political tension and violence similar to what we witnesses in North Africa a few months ago. If things get even worse we could see a food crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2007-2008.
Unfortunately food prices aren’t expected to drop anytime soon. The Food and Agriculture Organization said high and volatile prices can be expected the rest of this year and into 2012, citing a decline in food stockpiles and modest production increases for most of the crops.
As I wrote to you last month, “My biggest fear is that the plains [in the US] continue to see little to no rain and as a result there is a “super spike” in wheat prices. At this time, due to the large worldwide demand for food due to a growing population, food supplies have become finely balanced between supply and demand. If production is disrupted by an extreme weather event global prices of wheat will probably surge, which would reverberate throughout the entire food chain.” Now more than ever we all need to keep a close eye on the agricultural sector.
What do you think? Are food prices headed higher this summer? Are you buying agricultural commodities and stocks? Email me at matt@thestockenthusiast.com
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